Election Night Victory Viewing, Part 1

Senate and east coast house races

Nov 03, 2024

I’m looking forward to tomorrow night. I am increasingly confident that Harris will win, for reasons I laid out in my last post, “Why Harris Wins.”

But there are other exciting possibilities in the victory over fascism -- senate and house races that will determine our future as much as the presidential race.

New Vibe in the Senate/Can Dems Preserve their Majority?

In the Eastern Time Zone, we get to celebrate the election of three new Democratic senators. In New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim, a foreign policy expert and progressive Democrat, will move up. Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland will defeat former Republican governor Larry Hogan, by a lot. And Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delaware will also move from the House to the Senate.

Moving westward > Rep Elissa Slotkin of Michigan will likely defeat former Republican rep. Mike Rogers. Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Rep. Adam Schiff of California will also move up to the senate. Gallego will beat the remarkably unpleasant election-denier Kari Lake, she of the bomb lighting, and hopefully by a large enough margin to make it impossible for anyone, besides Kari Lake, to question the results.

Kim will become the first Korean-American senator. Alsobrooks and LBR are African-Americans. Gallego is Mexican-American. Slotkin and Schiff are Jews. Our team is a Klansman’s ultimate nightmare. Well, maybe the penultimate nightmare.

In Ohio one of our best senators, Sherrod Brown, is in a tough race against yet another rich guy endorsed by Trump, who won the state by 8% in 2020. It’s a strong tide to swim against, but I think Brown will squeak by.

Right now, Dems have a 51-49 edge in the senate. Dems will lose a seat in West Virginia (Joe Manchin retired). So, they can’t afford to lose another, but they probably will in Montana, where Jon Tester has served three terms as a senator and is trying for a fourth. Polls indicate he is trailing Tim Sheehy, a rancher and former Navy SEAL who has apparently lied about elements of his military record and how/when he received a bullet wound. Montana has changed – many new residents are conservatives who have come from California, Oregon, and Washington for more space and less government. Regrettably, I think Tester will lose.

So, Dems need to flip a Republican seat. There are only two possibilities: Texas and Florida. In Texas polls show Ted Cruz up by 3% over Rep. Colin Allred, a very sharp former NFL linebacker. Trump is up by 8%, say the polls. I think the polling strategies have inflated Trump’s support, but Allred will need to run ahead of Harris-Walz to beat Cruz.

When Al Franken was a senator he’d say, “I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.” Same for a lot of Texans. In 2018 Beto O’Rourke challenged Cruz and lost by 2.6%, so Cruz is not unbeatable. He is quite unlikeable.

Allred would make it six black senators. If he wins, I will gladly eschew desserts for Lent (that’s 40 days!).

In Florida the equally execrable Rick Scott is challenged by former Dem House member Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a college administrator who immigrated with her family from Ecuador when she was 14.

Scott is famous for running a health-care company that was fined 1.7 billion for Medicare fraud. Yup.

Scott is up 4% in the polls. It’s not impossible. If DMP wins, it’s no coffee for Lent. I still hope she wins.

So, it looks slightly more likely than not that Dems will lose their senate majority.

But there’s a wild card! In Nebraska (of all places) a boring MAGA senator Deb Fischer faces a surprising challenge from an independent candidate, Chuck Osborn, an industrial mechanic, union organizer and Navy vet (right out of high school), who led a brutal, ultimately successful strike against Kellogg’s Omaha plant.

During the pandemic Kellogg’s workers put in long hours, often 7 days/wk. to keep the plant going around the clock to fill demand for consumers eating more at home. The company made large profits. Come time to negotiate a new contract company negotiators were all, “Well, of course we’d like to help y’all but expenses, insurance costs, new yachts, etc.” Union local president Osborn wasn’t having it.

Osborn is a charismatic and very effective communicator. This has become a very close race. If Osborn wins, there may be a 50R, 49D and Dan senate. If Tim Walz is the tie-breaking president of the senate (as VP), Osborn will be the most important senator - he will be able to determine which party has control of the senate.

Bringing Down the House

Republicans have a 221-214 advantage, which is really a four-seat advantage (221-4 =217; 214 +4 = 218).

We will learn relatively early about Dems chances to win the House, starting with NY results. Dems lost four seats there in the 2022 midterms. They got one back when former Rep. Tom Suozzi won a special election to replace the estimable George Santos. So, three to go.

Albany Dems managed to gerrymander a Syracuse-based district so state senator and former high school biology teacher and teachers union leader John Mannion will be able to unseat Republican Brandon Williams.

On Long Island Laura Gillen should take another seat back from police officer Anthony D’Ambrosio.

In a rematch Josh Riley will try to defeat first-term Rep. Marc Molinaro and former Rep. Mondaire Jones will try to take a Westchester seat from Mike Lawler.

In New England – will Jared Golden (ME-2) win another term in northern Maine? It was Trump +6 in 2020. And will Harris win the one electoral vote in that district?

Former national teacher of the year, Rep. Jahana Hayes represents CT-5, in northwest CT, the state’s one purple house district. In 2022 she was reelected by 0.8%. With Harris at the top of the ticket, she should have an easier time this year. Dems need a hold here.

In central NJ progressive political organizer and former pro b-baller Sue Altman is challenging Thomas Kean Jr., a first term congressman and son of a former governor. Altman’s running hard on reproductive freedom. Another close race where Harris-Walz may help Altman bury a buzzer-beater.

Harris will win Virginia and may help Eugene Vindman hold cd-7, opened by Abigail Spanberger, who will run for governor next year. Vindman is the twin brother of Alexander Vindman, former Director for European Affairs for the National Security Council, whose report of what he overheard in Trump’s perfect phone call with Putin contributed greatly to Trump’s first impeachment.

Dems have a chance in the VA district around Norfolk and Newport News where a viable candidate must have Navy experience. Missy Cotter-Smasal is challenging a first-term Republican. MSC is a former surface-warfare officer, now a businesswoman. She is 46 though looks a lot younger. She is a pro-choice; her opponent is not.

Tonight I will report on House races in the rest of the country, starting with Pennsylvania where outstanding Democrats Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright need to successfully defend seats in NE PA,

More at jimhannon.substack.com