How Democrats Can Retake the House and Senate
The 2018 mid-term elections could and should be a wave election for Democrats. Democrats lead the generic congressional polls by an average of 13%, an astounding number. Trump’s approval rating is in the mid-thirties. It is a brutal combination for Republicans who know that generic congressional polls at the turn of the year have historically been very good predictors of mid-term election results.
The Cook Political Report lists seventeen Democratic seats in play and sixty-four Republican seats. Sabato Crystal Ball lists twenty and sixty-three. The recent passage of an extremely unpopular tax “cut” bill will not lift approval ratings for Congressional Republicans or Trump. It is likely that the number of Republican seats in play will increase, as incumbents anticipate defeat and/or a diminished role in a House with a Democratic majority.
After Doug Jones is sworn into office the Senate will have fifty-one Republicans and forty-nine Democrats (including independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King who caucus with the Democrats). In 2018 the Democrats have the significant disadvantage of having far more seats to defend. There are twenty-six Democratic incumbents and only eight Republicans, a function of the strong Democratic year of 2012 when President Obama was re-elected. Ordinarily, this imbalance would produce Republican gains.
But decisions not to seek re-election by Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona have created two open races and Dean Heller of Nevada faces a primary challenge from the right as well as a strong challenge by Democratic candidate Jacky Rosen, now in her first term in the House. Texas senator Ted Cruz faces a strong challenge from Democratic House member Beto O’Rourke and in Mississippi a far-right flamethrower from the Bannon/Breitbart wing is challenging incumbent senator Roger Wicker in the primary; waiting in the wings is Democratic candidate Brandon Presley, a thrice elected member of the state public utility commission and, yes, a cousin of the King.
Dem incumbents face tough races in North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp), Indiana (Joe Donnelly), West Virginia (Joe Manchin) and now in Minnesota (Tina Smith), a state that too many folks have misread as an easy Democratic hold.
Dems need to gain two seats to control the senate, as VP Pence will break any 50-50 votes. A tall order, but not impossible in this political climate.
What do the Dems need to get the job done in the House and Senate?
The first question is whether they should focus on turning Trump voters into Dem voters. This is an attractive strategic option because such a switch is potentially a +2 for Dems--subtracting a vote that would have gone to a Republican and adding a vote to the Dem candidate. The problem is that turnout is typically much lower in a mid-term election than in a presidential election year. For example, in Texas in 2016 the total vote was 8.8 million. In the last mid-term election, the total vote was 4.6 million. So, turning a Trump voter to a Dem is less likely than that voter staying home (a +1).
And in order to address that Trump voter (let’s imagine a white male without college education), Dems would have to take policy positions that would be antithetical to long-standing Democratic positions, e.g., on immigration, gun rights, gender justice, reproductive rights, etc. And in doing so they would likely suppress turnout of the Democratic base, which consists of people of color, young people under thirty, college-educated people (especially women), environmental voters, etc. This is a losing strategy and one without principle.
In the contemporary U.S., with our history of low voter turnout, every election is a base election and a GOTV (get out the vote) election. We have to motivate our likely voters (our base) to get them to the polls. The horrendous nature of the Trump presidency is a motivator but it is not enough. We need to give people something to vote for. This can happen at the level of individual races with attractive candidates but the Democratic Party needs to offer a coherent vision for the future and, just as importantly, communicate it effectively.
I believe the message is opportunity, community, and integrity.
The economic future depends on an educated workforce in technology, service jobs, and green jobs in the wide array of industries that will be dramatically altered as we move away from fossil fuels. Hillary Clinton had a strong plan for investment in the green economy but did not communicate her plans as consistently and effectively as was needed. Democrats need to outline again how we must invest in technologies and the infrastructure necessary for this economic transformation.
We also need to invest, heavily, in the familiar infrastructure of trains, bridges, roads, and water delivery. We need a tax increase to address the faltering infrastructure and repairs put off for far too long by a government that wanted to appease taxpayers and push the burden of costly repairs onto the next generation. This investment will create millions of jobs on work that absolutely needs to be done. This is an area where some forms of private-public partnership can work so that taxpayers don’t have to pay the full costs of infrastructure development that will benefit major corporations.
And Democrats absolutely need to campaign on a $15 minimum wage, paid family and medical leave, and a wide range of protections for workers, especially women. The focus on harassment in the workplace can help undermine abuse in many areas and create a greater sensibility and commitment to gender justice.
Community values support strengthening Medicare and Social Security which are incredibly now threatened by Republicans who would snatch food from grannies to give caviar to the wealthiest people in the country. Strengthening Medicare means recognizing the obligation we have to each other and this includes expanding access to healthcare for all. Democrats need to campaign on single payer healthcare as the only lasting solution to our current health care crisis--of access, cost, and incomprehensibility.
Democrats need to be internationalists to counter the nationalism (read fascism) of the Republicans. Yes, we can and should learn from models developed in other countries. Democratic candidates should be familiar with health care systems in Europe and Canada and show how adopting a similar system would benefit us.
And integrity. Donald Trump is an embarrassment. He is a thoroughly corrupt (and ignorant) con man, a textbook case of narcissistic personality disorder. His inner circle is also corrupt, and Manafort and Flynn will soon be joined by others under indictment. He will be caught up in the money-laundering investigations of Mueller and New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman and will likely be exposed as a self-serving and corrupt grifter. Republicans who enabled him will be tarred with the same brush. Dem candidates must run on restoring confidence in competent government led by men and women with impeccable personal and professional histories.
We already have many very strong Democratic candidates in congressional races. Here in Massachusetts we have a chance to elect a strong progressive in CD-3. Activists will be needed to help hold the Dem seat in NH-1, where Carol Shea-Porter will not seek re-election. And we have a chance to help swing seats in northern Maine where Jared Golden is challenging Bruce Poliquin and in New York where five Republican seats are in play.
Despite the Trumptastrophe it’s a great time to be a Democrat and a great time to be a progressive. All over the country progressive are building a movement and movement organizations that will be vital and vibrant long after Trump is gone.
Here’s to solidarity, fellowship, and more victories in 2018.
